Thoroughbred Foal Crop 2027: Why the Jockey Club Expects Only 16,500 Foals

Thoroughbred foal crop 2027: the new estimate

The Jockey Club expects about 16,500 registered Thoroughbred foals to be born in North America in 2027, down from its estimate of 17,000 for 2026. It announced the Thoroughbred foal crop 2027 projection on Oct. 13, 2026, along with its annual Report of Mares Bred statistics.

The headline numbers, all counted through Oct. 1, 2026:

• 670 stallions covered 23,932 mares in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico.
• That's 3.0% fewer mares than 2025 (24,662), but 9.2% fewer stallions (down from 738).
• The Jockey Club expects 2,000 to 3,000 more mares to be reported for 2026.
• 180 mares were bred under the Mare Incentive Program, which waives registration fees for certain 2027 foals.

The Jockey Club has usually released these statistics without commentary, but this year it added its view of what the numbers show. The short version: fewer horses are being bred, and the breeding that is happening is concentrating in Kentucky and in a smaller group of busy stallions.

How many Thoroughbreds are born each year?

North America's registered crop peaked at 51,296 foals in 1986, according to The Jockey Club Fact Book, and was still 44,143 in 1990. Today it's well under half the peak.

The stallion count tells the same story. Through Oct. 1 of each year, active stallions went 880 (2022), 825 (2023), 771 (2024), 738 (2025), 670 (2026). Mares bred slid more gently, from 26,744 to 23,932 over the same five years.

How a foal crop projection is made

A foal crop estimate is educated arithmetic. It starts with paperwork and ends with a number months before most of the foals arrive (a mare carries her foal for about 11 months, so mares bred in spring 2026 foal mostly in early 2027).

Step 1: The Report of Mares Bred

Every stallion owner must file a Report of Mares Bred (RMB) with The Jockey Club, listing each mare the stallion covered that season. RMBs are due by Aug. 1, after the Northern Hemisphere breeding season ends. Late reports keep trickling in, which is why the October count is called incomplete.

Step 2: Fill in the gap

The Jockey Club adds the mares it expects still to be reported. This year that's 2,000 to 3,000, so the real 2026 total is likely around 26,000 to 27,000 mares.

Step 3: Apply real-world rates

Not every bred mare produces a registered foal. Some don't get in foal, some lose the pregnancy, and some foals are never registered. The registry uses its long history of conception and foaling outcomes to turn mares bred into expected foals.

Rough math shows the scale: 16,500 foals from roughly 26,000-27,000 mares works out to a bit over 60%. That's an illustration, not The Jockey Club's exact formula.

Step 4: Check it against reality

The projection gets tested when foals are actually born and reported. The Jockey Club says 2025 breeding statistics, including Live Foal Reports for the 2026 foaling season, are due later in October. That will show how close last year's 17,000 estimate came.

Want the birth side of the story? Read how horses give birth.

Why breeding is concentrating in Kentucky and big books

Kentucky's 187 stallions covered 16,677 mares, about 69.7% of every mare reported bred in North America. Kentucky's total actually rose 1.9%, even with two fewer stallions.

Outside Kentucky, it's a different picture:

• Mares bred fell 12.5% (8,292 to 7,255).
• Stallions fell 12% (549 to 483).
• The steepest drops: Texas (-51.8%), Louisiana (-43.3%), Ohio (-35.8%), Puerto Rico (-32.7%) and Ontario (-23.2%). Florida (-14.6%) and California (-13.9%) also slipped.

Most popular stallions 2026

Seventeen stallions bred 200 or more mares. The top of the list:

1. Sierra Leone: 293 mares
2. Tiz the Law: 288
3. Citizen Bull: 261
4. Gun Runner: 250
5. Gunite: 236

Meanwhile, 519 of the 670 stallions bred fewer than 50 mares. The average book grew from 33.4 mares per stallion in 2025 to 35.7 in 2026.

Why it's happening

Breeders follow the buyers. Commercial yearling buyers pay a premium for foals by proven or fashionable sires, and most of those stallions stand in central Kentucky.

Modern farm management also lets a popular young stallion cover a large book in one season. That gives breeders more access to the names buyers want, and leaves less room for regional stallions. To understand the money side, see how stud fees work.

Why New York's program is growing

New York went against the tide. Mares bred rose 14.2%, from 1,119 to 1,278, and its stallion roster grew from 29 to 34. Oklahoma (+25.8%), Arizona (+15.8%) and Virginia (+206.7%, from a small base) also gained.

State-bred programs work by giving local horses something to run for, such as restricted races, purse bonuses and breeder awards. When those rewards are strong and steady, owners have a reason to foal mares and stand stallions in that state.

The Jockey Club wants to copy what works. It named Najja Thompson as its new director of State Breeder and Provincial Programs, starting Oct. 28, to help identify and expand successful state programs.

What a smaller crop means for sales and racing

Foals born in 2027 that go to auction will typically sell as yearlings in 2028, race as 2-year-olds in 2029 and run in the 2030 Triple Crown races. So the effects show up slowly, over several years.

Sale prices

Fewer foals usually means less supply, which tends to support prices for the best-bred, best-looking horses. That helps explain why top auctions like the Keeneland September Yearling Sale can stay strong while the crop shrinks.

For average horses, the picture is more mixed. Demand at the middle and lower end depends heavily on purses and state-bred incentives, not just supply. Resellers who buy weanlings to flip as yearlings watch this closely; see what pinhooking is.

Field sizes and racing

A smaller crop means fewer horses available to fill races down the line. Tracks feel this as pressure to keep field sizes healthy, especially in states where local breeding is falling fastest.

It doesn't mean racing is disappearing. It does mean every sound, well-managed horse matters more, and that each horse's racing career, and the second career after it, is worth investing in.

What to watch next

• Late October: The Jockey Club's 2025 breeding statistics and Live Foal Reports for the 2026 crop.
• Oct. 28: Najja Thompson starts as director of State Breeder and Provincial Programs.
• Final RMB totals: whether the late 2,000-3,000 mares change the picture outside Kentucky.
• Fall breeding stock sales: how mare prices hold up as fewer foals are planned.
• 2027 stallion rosters: whether more regional states follow New York's lead.

Quick checklist for breeders and buyers

• Breeding a mare? Check your state's breeder awards and restricted-race schedule before choosing a stallion's location.
• Standing a stallion? File RMBs on time; late filings slow down registration and skew the estimate.
• Buying a young horse? Compare state-bred incentives where you plan to race, not just pedigree.
• Just a fan? Follow the numbers each October. It's the best early read on racing's future.

New to the vocabulary? Start with the glossary or browse more racing trends.