Race forecast record

Before some big races we publish the Horse Academy forecast: our estimate of each runner's chance of winning. This page lists every one of those forecasts and how it did once the race was run. Nothing is removed: a miss stays here beside a hit.

So far

Record so far: no forecast race has been run yet. Every forecast stays published, hit or miss.

No forecast has been published yet. The first one will be listed here as soon as it goes up.

What goes into a forecast

We collect what the racing press has published about the race: the runners, their posts, jockeys and trainers, and each runner's recent results. Every runner is checked against a news page. No odds and no tips go into these facts.
From those facts alone we estimate every runner's chance of winning. We make several separate estimates and average them; the confidence shown for a horse says how closely they agreed. If too few estimates hold up, there is no forecast for that race.
The page shows the chances as whole percents that add up to 100. Beside them it shows what racing followers on X expect and any price a news page printed, with the chance that price implies. Neither one changes our figures.
After the race, the winner is confirmed on a news page and the forecast is scored. The Brier score adds up, over all runners, the squared gap between the chance we gave and what happened (1 for the winner, 0 for the rest). A forecast that gave the winner 100% scores 0.

The percentages are Horse Academy's estimates, not odds offered by anyone, and this page is not betting advice.

For adults only (18+). This is information, not betting advice. If you bet, set a limit and play responsibly.