Hay Shortage 2026: Why Horse Hay Is So Expensive and What to Feed

Hay shortage 2026: what's happening right now

The hay shortage 2026 horse owners are feeling is real, but it is regional: drought cut hay yields hard in Virginia, Germany and England, and nearly half of Colorado is in extreme or exceptional drought, so good bales are scarcer and pricier just as horses need more of them for winter. The good news is that safe substitutes exist (hay cubes, hay pellets and soaked beet pulp) as long as you switch slowly and keep some long-stem forage in the diet.

Here is what the last few weeks looked like:

• Virginia: On September 16, Gov. Abigail Spanberger declared a state of emergency (Executive Order 21) over an estimated 500,000-ton hay shortfall, about a billion pounds. Yields are down about 35% statewide and up to 70% in some areas.
• Colorado: USDA's September 10 hay report showed premium small square bales sold to horse stables in the northeast of the state trading around $14 to $16 a bale, with almost half of Colorado in extreme or exceptional drought.
• Germany: Large square bales averaged €143 per tonne in September, the highest price since June 2019. Hesse and Bavaria topped €190.
• England: In August the Environment Agency said more than half of England was in drought, and two hay makers in southern England reported yields down 20% to 35%, with some fields down 50% to 60%.

On X, a therapy-horse ranch sweating through 100°F days asked followers to help pay its hay bill, and a fundraiser for a UK pony sanctuary says its hay costs have doubled. If your feed bill jumped this fall, you are not imagining it.

Why is horse hay so expensive in 2026?

Hay prices are local. A national average can look calm while one drought-hit county runs out, and horse owners mostly buy the priciest slice of the market. Four things are pushing your bale price up.

1. Drought shrank the crop

A Virginia Tech extension veterinarian told local TV that most producers there saw first cuttings down 30% to 70%, leaving them short for cattle, horses, sheep and goats through winter. In Germany, drought wiped out third and fourth cuttings in many regions.

2. Barns started eating winter hay in summer

When pastures burn up, horses eat hay in July instead of December. Virginia farmers fed stored hay for at least 30 of the first 90 days of the grazing season, so the reserves that normally carry a farm to spring are already thin.

3. Hay is heavy and bulky to move

Hay a Virginia grower would normally produce for about $150 a ton is running $200 to $300 a ton when bought out of state, according to local reporting, and diesel hit as much as $6.79 a gallon on one recent delivery run. That is why Virginia is letting over-width trailers haul more hay per load (weight limits still apply).

4. Horse hay is a premium niche

Horses need clean, leafy, weed-free hay, usually in small square bales you can lift. That is a small share of all the hay grown, and it costs more per ton than big cattle rounds.

Do the per-ton math: a $16 bale that weighs 50 pounds works out to about $640 a ton. Bale weights vary a lot, so weigh a few before you compare sellers.

How much hay does a horse need, and what will winter cost?

An adult horse eats about 2% of its body weight a day in forage, so a 1,000-pound horse needs around 20 pounds of hay a day. The absolute minimum is 1% of body weight, and dropping below that risks colic and ulcers. Our nutrition guide covers the basics.

Add a cushion of at least 10% for waste and bad weather. Easy keepers, ponies and minis need less; hard keepers, seniors and horses in work often need more.

Hay alternatives for horses: what's safe to feed instead

Most bagged fiber products can stretch or replace part of the hay. Some can replace all of it, but they are not interchangeable, and regular grain or sweet feed is not a hay substitute.

Rules that keep substitutes safe:

• Switch over 10 to 14 days. Mix old and new forage and shift a little each day.
• Keep some long-stem forage. Even a few flakes a day give chewing time, reduce boredom and support gut health.
• Soak when in doubt. A mash-like consistency lowers the risk of choke (a blocked esophagus).
• Alfalfa cubes are richer. Great for hard keepers, too much for an easy keeper; choose timothy or grass cubes if weight is a worry.
• Straw is a stretcher, not food. One UK hay maker suggests mixing in straw, but it is low in nutrients, and a sudden switch raises the risk of impaction colic. Ask your vet first.
• Never feed lawn clippings, and be wary of cheap sorghum-family hay such as Johnson grass during drought.

If your horse has equine metabolic syndrome or a history of laminitis, get your hay tested for sugar and starch. Drought-stressed grass can store extra sugar, and a lab test is cheaper than a founder episode.

Moldy hay and horses: how to spot a bad bale before you buy

Cheap hay is expensive if it makes your horse sick. Horses are sensitive to mold dust, which can trigger heaves (equine asthma): coughing, nasal discharge and labored breathing. Mold toxins can also cause colic, diarrhea and feed refusal, and spoiled hay, haylage or silage can carry the toxin that causes botulism.

Your pre-purchase bale check:

• Open a bale from the middle of the stack, not the one on top. Mold often starts inside.
• Smell it. Good hay smells sweet; musty or sour means walk away.
• Look for patches of white, gray or black, or flakes that clump together.
• Shake a flake in sunlight. A heavy dust cloud is a pass.
• Feel inside. Warmth, dampness or a bale that feels too heavy for its size signals moisture. Mold and bacteria grow in hay stored above about 14% to 15% moisture.
• Check for weeds and trash. In alfalfa, especially from dry western and plains states, look for blister beetles, which stay toxic to horses even when dead and dried.
• Ask questions: which cutting, when it was baled, whether it got rained on and whether it was stored under cover.

For a big purchase, send a sample to a forage lab. Penn State Extension's guide treats fewer than 500,000 mold spores per gram as relatively low risk and more than 5 million as a reason to stop feeding. Soaking dusty hay for 5 to 30 minutes cuts the dust but does not remove toxins, so visibly moldy hay should never go in the feeder.

What to do now: a hay-shortage checklist

1. Do the math today. Count horses, pounds per day and days until spring grass, then add your cushion.
2. Buy early from a grower you trust, and ask about delivery dates in writing.
3. Compare price per ton, not per bale.
4. Store it right. Stack bales on pallets in a dry, ventilated barn; tarps help if hay must sit outside.
5. Cut waste. Slow-feed nets and racks beat throwing hay on mud.
6. Protect drought pasture. Letting horses graze fields down to dirt slows regrowth and pushes them onto hay sooner.
7. Check body condition monthly. Feel for ribs under a winter coat; our health basics page shows what to look for.
8. Ask for help early. Your county Extension agent can help you find hay and plan rations, and Virginia's agriculture department runs a disaster-resources page.

What to watch next

• October 1: Virginia's over-width hay-hauling waiver starts and runs 30 days. The emergency itself lasts 45 days from September 16 unless it is extended.
• Rain before frost: a Virginia Tech extension vet says rain before the first frosts could still grow grass, and every grazing day saves hay.
• USDA state hay reports: market reports such as Colorado's show whether small-square horse hay is still climbing; Colorado's next one is due September 24.
• Europe's winter supply: watch German and UK prices as stored hay runs down; UK hay makers say this is their second tough harvest in a row.

One upside for cold nights: fiber digesting in the hindgut makes heat, so good hay, not extra grain, is what keeps a horse warm. For year-round routines, see our care guide.